John Lettieri, President and CEO of Economic Innovation Group | Official Website
John Lettieri, President and CEO of Economic Innovation Group | Official Website
Among Montana’s counties, Petroleum County saw the largest increase in transfer dependency over the past 10 years, surging 15.1% from 11.9% in 2012 to 27% in 2022, and up 21.8% from just 5.2% in 1970. In dollar terms, government transfers per capita in Petroleum County jumped from $5,958 in 2012 to $9,198 in 2022, a stark contrast to the $1,122 recorded in 1970.
Wibaux County followed with the second-largest increase in transfer dependency, increasing 12.5% from 15.7% in 2012 to 28.2% in 2022, and an overall increase of 17.5% from 1970’s 10.7% transfer dependency. This trend is reflected in per capita amounts, with residents of Wibaux County receiving an average of $13,110 in transfer income in 2022, up from $8,489 in 2012 and more than double the $1,122 recorded in 1970.
Additionally, Big Horn County had the highest percentage of income derived from government transfers, at 37% in 2022, making it the county with the highest overall transfer dependency. Lincoln County and Sanders County followed closely behind, with transfer dependency rates of 36.3% and 35.5% in 2022, respectively.
Compared to 1970, Big Horn County increased by 28.6%, while Lincoln County and Sanders County have increased by 29.7% and 21.9%, respectively, showing sustained reliance on government transfers. Residents in Big Horn County received an average of $13,802 in transfers per capita, with Lincoln County and Sanders County close behind at $16,276 and $15,785, respectively.
For comparison, the statewide average was 18.3% in 2022, showing a higher dependency than the national average of 17.6%. On a per capita level, this translates to $11,163 per resident in 2022, compared to $11,542 nationwide.
Government transfer payments are non-repayable funds provided by federal, state, or local governments to support individuals in need. These payments aim to stabilize economic conditions and provide financial support during hardships. Key programs include Social Security transfers (retirement benefits), Medicare transfers (healthcare for seniors), Medicaid transfers (healthcare for low-income individuals), and income maintenance transfers (financial assistance for basic needs).
In Montana, reliance on government transfers was just 8.7% (or $1,897 per capita in inflation-adjusted 2022 dollars) in 1970. This has since increased to 18.3% (or $11,163 per capita) in 2022, reflecting a total increase of 9.6% since 1970. This shift is largely influenced by increased healthcare costs, and economic transformations that have reshaped income sources across the U.S.
In 2022, the primary government transfer programs in Montana included:
- Social Security: $4,037 (36.2% of total transfers)
- Medicare: $2,526 (22.6% of total transfers)
- Medicaid: $2,159 (19.3% of total transfers)
- Income Maintenance Programs: $777 (7% of total transfers)
With 20% of the population aged 65 and older, Montana has a significant demand for programs like Social Security and Medicare. However, counties with higher poverty rates also show elevated Medicaid and income maintenance participation.
Government transfers have long been a modest financial safety net, historically comprising only a small fraction of Americans' income. However, since the 1970s—sometimes dubbed the “Great Transfer-mation”—dependency has surged from 8.2% (or $2,022 per capita in inflation-adjusted 2022 dollars) in 1970 to 17.6% (or $11,542 per capita) in 2022 nationwide. In Montana, reliance on government transfers has similarly increased from 8.7% (or $1,897 per capita) in 1970 to 18.3% (or $11,163 per capita) in 2022, reflecting broader national trends.
According to the Economic Innovation Group’s analysis, these trends are not merely short-term responses to economic pressures but rather reflect a profound, long-term transformation in how government support is integrated into American life. The study illustrates that structural shifts—from rising healthcare expenses and demographic changes to stagnant wages—have significantly increased dependency on government transfers.
| County | Dependency on Transfers (%) | Change Since 2012 | Change Since 1970 | Per Capita Amount (2022) | Per Capita Change Since 2012 | Per Capita Change Since 1970 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beaverhead County | 20.7% | -0.2% | 11.7% | $12,638 | $3,313 | $10,801 |
| Big Horn County | 37% | 8.4% | 28.6% | $13,802 | $4,612 | $12,272 |
| Blaine County | 31.9% | 5.7% | 19.9% | $11,695 | $2,961 | $9,431 |
| Broadwater County | 19.5% | -0.6% | 8.5% | $10,087 | $2,218 | $8,028 |
| Carbon County | 17.6% | 0.8% | 4.8% | $11,984 | $3,336 | $9,444 |
| Carter County | 26.3% | 11.8% | 18.2% | $10,972 | $3,027 | $9,121 |
| Cascade County | 21.1% | 2.3% | 14.1% | $12,031 | $2,783 | $10,234 |
| Chouteau County | 17.7% | -0.2% | 11.4% | $9,699 | $2,123 | $7,834 |
| Custer County | 21.3% | 2.9% | 11.9% | $11,180 | $2,611 | $9,002 |
| Daniels County | 21.1% | 7.7% | 11% | $13,488 | $3,522 | $10,657 |
| Dawson County | 24.1% | 7.4% | 16% | $11,924 | $3,481 | $10,224 |
| Deer Lodge County | 31% | 4% | 19.7% | $14,843 | $4,122 | $12,794 |
| Fallon County | 19.9% | 9.9% | 12.9% | $10,047 | $3,294 | $8,687 |
| Fergus County | 23.6% | 3.2% | 13.5% | $12,067 | $2,711 | $9,799 |
| Flathead County | 17.8% | -1% | 8.2% | $11,245 | $2,337 | $9,241 |
| Gallatin County | 8.3% | -2% | 1.4% | $6,744 | $1,276 | $5,431 |
| Garfield County | 25% | 8.7% | 19.2% | $10,922 | $3,856 | $9,346 |
| Glacier County | 29.2% | 3.9% | 17.2% | $12,995 | $3,361 | $10,639 |
| Golden Valley County | 28.6% | 8.4% | 18.2% | $16,014 | $4,480 | $13,744 |
| Granite County | 21.5% | 0% | 9.3% | $12,167 | $2,074 | $10,059 |
| Hill County | 24% | 4.8% | 16.1% | $13,052 | $3,610 | $11,208 |
| Jefferson County | 19.4% | 3% | 9.3% | $11,698 | $3,177 | $9,853 |
| Judith Basin County | 21% | 3% | 13.6% | $11,266 | $1,981 | $9,467 |
| Lake County | 27.9% | 1.1% | 14% | $13,243 | $2,948 | $11,060 |
| Lewis and Clark County | 18% | 2.4% | 10.4% | $10,695 | $2,651 | $8,703 |
| Liberty County | 16.5% | 0.2% | 12.6% | $12,102 | $4,720 | $10,713 |
| Lincoln County | 36.3% | 1.8% | 29.7% | $16,276 | $3,916 | $14,948 |
| McCone County | 19.2% | 5.7% | 13.8% | $10,195 | $3,938 | $8,986 |
| Madison County | 16% | -3.5% | 4.9% | $11,584 | $2,392 | $9,651 |
| Meagher County | 32.1% | 6% | 23.2% | $15,841 | $3,685 | $14,047 |
| Mineral County | 30.5% | -1.6% | 19.3% | $14,213 | $1,478 | $12,086 |
| Missoula County | 15.8% | 0.1% | 7.8% | $10,099 | $2,520 | $8,416 |
| Musselshell County | 30% | 6.2% | 16.5% | $14,849 | $4,303 | $12,057 |
| Park County | 18.2% | 0.1% | 7.9% | $11,501 | $2,850 | $9,478 |
| Petroleum County | 27% | 15.1% | 21.8% | $9,198 | $3,240 | $8,076 |
| Phillips County | 28.4% | 6.3% | 18% | $12,747 | $2,845 | $10,604 |
| Pondera County | 21.5% | 1.2% | 14.9% | $13,076 | $3,495 | $11,307 |
| Powder River County | 23% | 5.2% | 17.2% | $9,377 | $2,421 | $8,186 |
| Powell County | 27.6% | 5% | 16.1% | $13,870 | $5,501 | $11,790 |
| Prairie County | 27.4% | 2.2% | 13.8% | $14,472 | $2,321 | $11,962 |
| Ravalli County | 22.4% | 0% | 9.8% | $13,512 | $3,506 | $11,161 |
| Richland County | 14.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | $9,102 | $2,523 | $7,366 |
| Roosevelt County | 34.9% | 11% | 24.2% | $15,249 | $4,893 | $13,144 |
| Rosebud County | 26.7% | 7.2% | 14.9% | $14,095 | $5,068 | $11,941 |
| Sanders County | 35.5% | 1.5% | 21.9% | $15,785 | $4,053 | $13,480 |
| Sheridan County | 24.6% | 10.6% | 16.4% | $13,043 | $3,564 | $11,136 |
| Silver Bow County | 22.2% | 6.4% | 10.1% | $12,553 | $2,641 | $10,062 |
| Stillwater County | 18.2% | 2.8% | 8.7% | $12,394 | $4,128 | $10,235 |
| Sweet Grass County | 20.7% | 0.8% | 10.9% | $12,315 | $3,119 | $10,231 |
| Teton County | 20.4% | 3.7% | 13.2% | $12,264 | $3,131 | $10,471 |
| Toole County | 16.4% | 2.9% | 9.8% | $9,795 | $2,363 | $7,967 |
| Treasure County | 22.7% | 5.4% | 17.3% | $11,698 | $2,032 | $10,211 |
| Valley County | 22.5% | 2.9% | 14.8% | $13,376 | $3,269 | $11,521 |
| Wheatland County | 31.8% | 9.3% | 20.5% | $14,834 | $5,591 | $12,266 |
| Wibaux County | 28.2% | 12.5% | 17.5% | $13,110 | $4,621 | $10,860 |
| Yellowstone County | 16.5% | 1.9% | 9.2% | $10,462 | $2,436 | $8,773 |
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