Big Sky Times

Montana State University is spearheading a study funded by the U.S. Department of Defense, where Cascade Tuholske, assistant professor of earth sciences, is conducting research focused on the relationship between climate conditions, agriculture-related migration and regional stability. According to a release on July 18, this study is through a $3 million grant from the Minerva program from the Department of Defense, involving researchers from fiver universities with the University of California, Santa Barbara leading the charge.

"Some research suggests climate change may be, in military parlance, a threat multiplier or catalyst to conflict in political situations,” said Tuholske.

According to the release, the study involves examining the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Africa and its potential implications for U.S. national security. The study aims to investigate the extend to which changing conditions are driving agriculture-related migration among citizens of Kenya, Tanzania and Zambia. Tuholske emphasized that Africa is experiencing rising temperatures overall, with some regions witnessing increased extremes like heightened dryness in some areas and excessive rainfall in others. The climate shifts can significantly impact their ability to engage in agriculture, but it is unclear whether the changes are compelling workers to abandon the rural areas.

Tuholske and his team, which includes a graduate student and post-doctoral researcher, will conduct surveys in Kenya and Zambia in 2024 and 2027 to address these questions. The objective is to assess whether climate-induced changes in food production, processing, distribution and consumption are influencing people's decisions to relocate. The data that is gathered will also inform satellite based analysis in Tanzania.

The MSU team plans to combine field survey results with satellite data to gain a comprehensive understanding of the shifting populations in the target countries. They will receive support from MSU's Geospatial Core Facility, which has a specialty of distilling complex geographic data. Tuholske said that the demographic information collected could help African countries in infrastructure planning and understanding their citizens' needs. Also, research could uncover lessons in resiliency to be applied in other regions.