Big Sky Times

AARP Montana’s 2024 election survey indicates that older voters are backing Tim Sheehy (R) over Sen. John Tester (D) by eight percentage points on the full ballot, according to a September 5 AARP news release.

According to the survey, voters aged 50 and older are a demographic that politicians should pay attention to. In the U.S. Senate race, Tim Sheehy leads Senator Jon Tester by 49% to 41% on the full ballot. Of the remaining 9% of voters, 5% say they support a third-party candidate and 4% are undecided about who they will vote for. When it comes to voters over the age of 50, Sheehy leads Tester by 55% to 39%. In the head-to-head ballot, Sheehy leads Tester among voters overall by 51% to 45%, and even more among older voters by 57% to 40%, also according to AARP’s September 5 news release.

"Voters over age 50 are the biggest and most enthusiastic voting bloc this election, and their votes will make a difference in the U.S. Senate race," said Tim Summers, State Director of AARP Montana. "The candidate who wants to win in November should focus on the issues older voters care about most, from protecting Social Security and Medicare to supporting family caregivers."

Additionally, former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris among all voters by 56% to 41%, and by a larger percentage among voters aged 50 and older – by 60% to 37%, according to the same news release.

The Cook Political Report has moved the Montana U.S. Senate race towards "Lean Republican." The race has shifted in Republicans' favor, moving from a Toss-Up to Lean Republican, with GOP candidate Tim Sheehy gaining ground against three-term incumbent Senator Jon Tester. Tester faces new difficulties in a presidential year with an increasingly polarized electorate. Polls show Sheehy opening a consistent lead while Tester’s image and job approval ratings have declined. The outcome of this race will have significant implications for which party controls the Senate, with Republicans now seen as favorites to reclaim the majority.

Tim Sheehy is a veteran of the U.S. military, a member of the Navy SEALs, and founder of Bridger Aerospace. He is also a firefighting pilot, rancher, and father of four, according to his official biography on his campaign website.